Everything you ever wanted to know about the measles surge

Canada just lost its 'measles elimination' status in the face of endemic and surging cases. Read my story for Nature.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03769-z 

mini FAQ

Q: There are a lot of news stories about people deciding not to get vaccinated. Is that behind the surge?

A: Yes and no. First, the rate of measles vaccination globally is going up, not down. (It took a hit during the pandemic and is still recovering back to pre-pandemic levels, but it is rising).

Most countries, including Canada and the US and the UK, don't hit the recommended level of 95% vaccination. But that's usually okay. You can beat back the disease in a country with a much lower level of vaccination than that. Overall, Canada and the US and the UK do have fairly high vaccination rates, around 90%.

BUT outbreaks do often happen in spots/communities where vaccination levels are low and so one case spreads. That's hard to fight back against.

Q: Is Canada doing really badly for measles?

A: Yes and no. Very badly indeed for Canada -- it's the worst surge in decades. But other countries have seen and do see far worse. The top country for measles this year is Yemen, with about 200,000 cases; Canada has seen just under 5,000. Globally, 2024 was worse for measles caseloads than 2025, and 2019 was far worse. In 2024 Europe was particularly hard hit, and in 2019 Africa had a lot of cases.

Q: Will the US follow?

A: Maybe. The Texas outbreak happened in January 2025, and if cases keep going to January 2026 then they too will loose their 'elimination status'. 

Q: what should we do about it?

A: get your kids vaccinated! While it's true that even a relatively high national level of vaccination isn't bomb-proof protection against outbreaks, vaccination will help your child and their friends and everyone in your community. Don't be part of the 'gaps' in coverage that let outbreaks happen.