How the pandemic is shaping cold and flu season

As soon as the kids went back to school in my small town, the lineup at the healthcare centre for COVID-19 testing grew exponentially. As per usual for September, many kids had the sniffles--thankfully, none of it turned out to be COVID-19.

This made me wonder: why are colds spreading so rampantly?? Does this mean the procedures for preventing disease transmission are failing? Should I be worried?

My answers in Nature today: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3

It turns out that pandemic response measures (masks, social distancing and increased handwashing) are quite good at clamping down on flu, covid, and other respiratory diseases--but not some common colds.

Common colds are in the majority caused by 4 common coronaviruses (the same family as the novel coronavirus) and/or hundreds of known rhinoviruses. Rhinoviruses are different beasts. They don't rely on external lipid envelope for protection like coronaviruses do, and that envelope is what soaps and sanitizers break down. So rhinoviruses are hardier, and last longer on surfaces, and may spread more easily between non-symptomatic kids. As a result rhinoviruses seem to be thriving; detections of these viruses boomed in Australia over their winter, even while flu plummeted to near zero and covid was beaten back. Doctors in the US and UK report rhinoviruses going strong.

The good news is that rhinoviruses (and maybe exposure to common coronaviruses too) might protect against COVID-19. One researcher described rhinoviruses to me as being like King Julian from Madagascar: so full of himself and egotistical that no other virus around him stands a chance. Rhinoviruses seem to replicate fast and kick up immune responses that stop other viruses from competing. That effect may have derailed the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, and it MIGHT be playing a role with COVID-19 too... researchers are still looking to find out.

So if you have the sniffles, chances are pretty good it's a rhinovirus to blame (but DO GO GET TESTED TO CHECK), and that might even be protective.