When the Atlantic tips...

As the world careens past our hoped-for target of 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, scientists are growing increasingly alarmed that we may be nearing a dramatic, long-feared “tipping point” — a moment when the main ocean current in the Atlantic Ocean becomes destined to shut down, clamping off the primary source of warmth for northern Europe and playing havoc with the global climate.

Such a scenario has been a concern for many decades, but the issue is now heating up. “I have personally researched this for 35 years,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “For the first 30 years we considered this a low likelihood event — I would have said a 5 percent chance of occurring. It’s more like 50/50 now. I would even say more likely than not.”

Read my feature in Yale Environment 360